Turquoise Trail Market Analysis – Second Quarter

First Half 2016 Home Sales Volume Remains Steady
This analysis covers the MLS Areas identified as Hwy 14/County Road 42 – Area 11, which begins roughly at 599 and ends at County Rd 55A, and Area 12 that continues South through Madrid of single-family homes on at least five acres.


CLOSED AND PENDING SALES: 2016 has gotten off to a strong start, with 20 closed and 3 pending sales in the first half. These 23 sales in the first half of 2016 surpass the total number of sales for all of last year. Continued low interest rates and steady inventory supply have created a fairly balanced market throughout Santa Fe. The uncertainty of the post-election economy can also spark buyer activity. Buyers are taking advantage now of both great interest rates and good pricing for investment. The median sale price has gone down this quarter from $385,000 to $349,000 due to buyer focus on catching the last of the under $350,000 market. The average sales price is $407,000. About 76% of all single family sales throughout Santa Fe and in the Turquoise Trail area continue to be under $500,000 – however, there are closed sales this first half of the year on the Trail up to $850,000. The average square-foot sold price is down to $175, the same as last year.

ACTIVE MARKET: Currently there are 35 active listings on the market – about a nine month inventory at the pace of current sales – or six months for conventional rather than offthe-grid homes – which is considered a balanced market. The third quarter has gotten off to a slow start with very little foot traffic in July. Off-the-grid homes continue to represent a significant percentage (nearly 50%) of the area market as these sales are stalled, but recent closings for off-the-grid with big-bank loans this year should open up that market. The median price on the current market is about $509,000 with the median square foot price at $189 for a home on about 13 acres. Average days on the market is 136/204 for conventional/off-the-grid. A significant increase in supply is expected as we head in to the busy fall market.

Land sales remain flat with 8 sales this year, most under $100,000 and most with water in place. Low resale home inventory in the under $500,000 should renew interest in land at some point, however supply far surpasses demand as there are 89 lots currently on the market.